The fighting between Russia and Ukraine is still continuing. Under the influence of the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the burning situation of multiple outbreaks of the epidemic, Syncrolift, global markets at all levels, such as capital, energy, bulk commodities and spot goods, all showed a sharp turbulence.
In particular, the prices of upstream international crude oil and natural gas have risen linearly; In terms of stock market futures, the crude oil system has risen sharply across the board. The oil sector, oil and gas exploitation and service sector are all red, and many stocks have directly increased. Therefore, downstream chemical products are also taking advantage of the trend to soar, which can be described as "rising to No Friends"!
As the war between Ukraine and Russia escalated, the situation became more and more tense, and the oil price also soared due to this. The release of crude oil by the International Energy Agency could not offset the shortage of oil and the influence of Geopolitics. On March 2, crude oil rose sharply in the day, brent crude oil rose 5% to $112.61/barrel, while WTI crude oil rose 4.25% to $110.85/barrel.
Crude oil exceeded US $110 per barrel, and natural gas soared 45%, undoubtedly, it also promoted the fierce rise of chemicals. Since the resumption of work, the prices of more than 50 chemical products have been raised, with a maximum surge of 95000 yuan/ton.
MIBK: at present, the quotation is 13766.67 yuan/ton, which is 1,000 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 7.83%.
Acrylic acid: at present, the quotation is 16033.33 yuan/ton, which is 1133.33 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 7.61%.
Butanediol: at present, the quotation is 27350 yuan/ton, which is 1160 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 4.43%.
Caustic soda: at present, the quotation is 4366.67 yuan/ton, which is 800 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 22.43%.
Caustic soda: at present, the quotation is 1110 yuan/ton, which is 170 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 18.09%.
Yellow Phosphorus: at present, the quotation is 34500 yuan/ton, which is 2375 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 7.39%.
Maleic anhydride: at present, the quotation is 13333.34 yuan/ton, which is 1933.33 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 16.96%.
Light soda ash: at present, the quotation is 2562.5 yuan/ton, which is 337.5 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 15.17%.
Butadiene: at present, the quotation is 8151.43 yuan/ton, which is 1040.18 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 14.63%.
Ethylene oxide: at present, the quotation is 8200 yuan/ton, which is 1,000 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 13.89%.
Melamine: at present, the quotation is 12333.33 yuan/ton, which is 1300 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, an increase of 11.78%.
Neopentyl glycol: at present, the quotation is 19666.37 yuan/ton, which is 1917.67 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 10.80%.
Silicone DMC: at present, the quotation is 34716.67 yuan/ton, which is 3296.67 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 10.49%.
Ammonium chloride: at present, the quotation is 1220 yuan/ton, which is 145 yuan/ton higher than the starting price later, with an increase of 13.49%.
Price increase of some chemical products after Spring Festival (unit: yuan/ton)
among the nearly 100 kinds of rising chemical raw materials, including petrochemical and natural gas chemical industry chain products, there are also many other industrial chain products, which can be called the "resurrection" of chemical products ".
For the trend of raw material price increase, chemical workers are complaining. The external geopolitics are tense, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated, and the risk aversion mood is warming up. The chemical industry chain products are constantly pushing up.
Some chemicals are not directly affected by the crude oil end products, but the price has also increased, on the one hand, the production cost brought by energy price increases, and the electricity price and steam price continue to rise.
In addition, the price of crude oil also indirectly affects the price of domestic refined oil. At present, the cumulative increase of domestic refined oil is 830-860 yuan/ton, and the cost of large logistics transport vehicles has increased by 6.8 yuan/100km on average, the freight cost of fuel vehicle and LNG trucks has increased.
The outbreak of domestic epidemic broke out, and traffic control and high-speed closure caused the near suspension of inter-provincial transportation, making it difficult to purchase raw materials.
Some chemical enterprises said that the profit was already very low. Even if the price of the product was raised with the price of raw materials, it was difficult to ensure that the product could be profitable. More people were doing the wishful thinking of "stopping the decline by rising, the situation of closing the plate, not making an offer, or making an offer once a day has become the" strategy of lying flat "in the" resurrection ".
Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has changed rapidly. When the war is over or the peace talks are over, there will be much room for energy prices to fall back, moreover, the rise of crude oil is difficult to make up for the difference between supply and demand in upstream and downstream. Most chemicals are more affected by demand than by crude oil. Therefore, the current market is mainly "bearish.
On the other hand, recent geopolitical conflicts have been escalating, and Russia and Ukraine are still in an emergency state. Many countries have adopted monetary sanctions, resulting in exchange rate chaos in cross-border transactions. Moreover, international transportation is blocked, and the problem of high price of international freight has not been solved yet. Layers of difficulties have made overseas trade "prostrate", it is expected that the chemical market may reduce demand due to geopolitics in the short term.
In addition, domestic efforts have been plus-sized to ensure stable supply of prices and suppress the behavior of speculation. It is expected that under the support of the high level of raw oil in March, there is still room for upward movement in the olefin industry chain, but the foreign tension + the domestic "stable" supply operation, most of the chemicals are mainly weak operation. Old friends of chemical industry are alert to the news that supports the speculation of chemical products, and beware of the collapse and withdrawal of crude oil, resulting in a sharp reduction in chemical products.
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