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[Market information]：PC and epoxy resin new devices are put into operation, and bisphenol A is expected to start to expand significantly in 2022.

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From 2015 to 2021, China's bisphenol A production continued to grow and its development was relatively stable. In 2021, China's bisphenol A production is expected to reach about 1.7 million tons, and the comprehensive operating rate of the major units of bisphenol A is about 77%, which is at a high level. It is expected that the annual output is expected to gradually increase from 2022 onwards, with the successive commissioning of the BPA plant under construction. In 2016-2020, China's bisphenol A imports grew slowly, and the import dependence of bisphenol A was close to 30%. It is expected that with the substantial increase in domestic production capacity in the future, the import dependence of bisphenol A is expected to continue to decline.

The downstream demand structure of bisphenol A is concentrated, mainly used as PC and epoxy resin, accounting for almost half of the total.'s apparent consumption of bisphenol A is expected to be about 2.19 million tonnes in 2021, up 2% YoY. In the future, with the downstream PC and epoxy resin new devices are put into production, the demand for bisphenol A is expected to increase significantly.

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The new PC capacity is large, driving the growth of bisphenol A demand. China is an importer of polycarbonate, and there is an urgent need for import substitution. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, in 2020, China's PC output was 819,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, the import volume was 1.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, the export volume was about 251,000 tons, the apparent consumption was 2.198 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%, the self-sufficiency rate was only 37.3%, China's PC import demand is urgent.

From January to October 2021, China's PC output was 702,600 tons, down 0.38% year-on-year, domestic PC imports were 1.088 million tons, down 10.0% year-on-year, exports were 254,000 tons, up 41.1% year-on-year, as China's PC new production capacity was put into production, import dependence is expected to continue to improve.

, wind power industry, electronic materials and other industries drive epoxy resin to continue to expand. The main application fields of domestic epoxy resin are coatings, composite materials, electronic appliances and adhesives. In recent years, the application proportion of each part has basically remained stable, accounting for 35%, 30%, 26% and 9% respectively.

The of

predicts that in the next 5 years, in many downstream application fields of epoxy resin, composite materials and capital construction epoxy resin will become the main areas to support the growth rate of epoxy resin production. The demand for wind power continues to increase. The construction and maintenance of high-speed railways, highways, and subways and airports in the development and construction of urbanization will promote the development of epoxy resin. Especially with the promotion of "the belt and road initiative", the demand for epoxy resin will be greatly increased.

PCB industry is the main downstream application of epoxy resin in the field of electronics and electricity. The core material of PCB is copper clad laminate, and epoxy resin accounts for about 15% of the cost of copper clad laminate. With the rapid evolution of new generation information technologies such as big data, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and 5G, as the basic material of the electronics industry, it is expected that the demand and growth rate of copper clad laminates will increase year by year.

bisphenol A is in a high boom cycle, we assume that bisphenol A downstream demand on schedule, the current bisphenol A downstream epoxy resin has 1.54 million tons of production capacity, PC has 1.425 million tons of production capacity, these capacity in the next 2-3 years to put into production, for bisphenol A demand has a strong pull. On the supply side, bisphenol A's own supply to maintain a reasonable growth, the current bisphenol A under construction capacity of 2.83 million tons, these capacity in 2-3 years have been put into production, since then the industry growth mainly to integrated development, a single set of equipment to be put into production alone to reduce the situation, the industry growth rate fell to a reasonable level.

, it is

estimated that in 21-23, the apparent consumption of bisphenol A will reach 223/302/4.16 million tons and the output will reach 173/234/3.32 million tons, with a relatively obvious supply and demand gap.

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Source: Zhuochuang Information, Guoxin Securities Economic Research Institute, Epoxy Resin Exchange and Trading

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